It's not difficult to handpick your best market calls. We definitely don't get every market call correct, but our Gravitational Framework has allowed us to consistently catch major macro market moves before they begin.
Here are a few examples of our non-consensus market calls. All market calls are accompanied by a time stamped link to the original source. If you would like to discuss our framework and track record in more detail, we invite you to contact us here.
August 8: As Growth Slows, U.S. Shift Work Says Get Long XLU
"The Fundamental Gravity bottom line is that we are witnessing the U.S. Growth a Go-Go theme passing the baton to the U.S. Shift work macro theme. Asset classes that perform well when U.S. growth slows bottomed between late April and June. Now, starting with the July data, we are starting to see chinks in the U.S. growth armor. The Quantitative Gravity bottom line is that XLU is firing on all quantitative cylinders right now, and you should be buying pullbacks until further notice. The Behavioral Gravity bottom line is that the utilities sector will be one of the best-performing sectors, from both a risk and return perspective, in the second half of the year. Clearly, investors don’t fully understand the U.S. Shift Work macro theme, because they are not nearly bullish enough on utilities."
June 27: Lower Highs Are Telling the Entire Story for being Long U.S. Consumer Staples
"The Fundamental Gravity bottom line is that when U.S. growth slows, consumer staples is one of the few equity sectors that outperforms on a relative basis in terms of both return and lower drawdown risk. The Quantitative Gravity bottom line is that all four quantitative aspects are decidedly bullish, and all we need to get this consumer staples party started is a buyable pullback. The Behavioral Gravity bottom line is that investors are bearish on XLP because they believe the high growth train we’ve been on for the last two years is still a long way from its destination. Those of us who are data-dependent know that the train is still chugging along, but we are very close to the station. "
June 20: Humanness and a Shorting Opportunity for U.S. Semiconducotrs
"The Fundamental Gravity bottom line is that the combo platter of slowing Asian economies with an impending U.S. economy slowdown is going to induce a semiconductor bear market. The Quantitative Gravity bottom line is that while SMH’s readings are still bullishly inclined, they are deteriorating at the margin. All bear markets start out as a bull market that first gets less bullish and then enters a bear market. The Behavioral Gravity bottom line is that investors are starting to turn bearish on SMH and vote with their feet. Luckily for us, SMH’s price is still hovering near 2018 highs, which means there’s plenty of downside from here and room for people to get even more bearish once SMH’s price has capitulated to the downside."
May 30: The Other Korea
"Fundamentally, when South Korea’s economic equation equals growth down plus rising inflation, EWY has the following performance statistics: average quarterly return is -5.3%; average drawdown is -16.7%; and positive quarterly hit rate is 43%. Quantitatively, three of the four aspects of EWY’s underlying market structure indicate bearish conditions ahead. Behaviorally, investors remain bullish on EWY, despite a supremely bearish set-up for emerging markets generally and a bearish Fundamental Gravity in South Korea specifically. All three Gravities are aligned and decidedly bearish, which means it’s time to put on a short trade and go huntin’ for wabbit."
May 23: Cry for Me Brazil
"Fundamentally, Brazil’s economic equation is murky, and when you toss in the political uncertainty surrounding the October election, you have a Caipirinha-esque recipe for a drawdown in Brazilian equities. Quantitatively, all four aspects of EWZ’s underlying market structure are indicating that the most likely direction for price is lower, making EWZ a prime short candidate. Behaviorally, investors remain bullish and continue to plow money into EWZ based on last year’s performance, completely unaware of the drawdown risk that is rising.All three Gravities are aligned and decidedly bearish, which means it’s time to put on a short trade and go huntin’ for wabbit."
May 18: Rockin' Reflation in Short Trade on US Industrials
"This asset management call is simple: corporate earnings are at a cyclical peak, while both raw material and wage costs are accelerating. To add fuel to this bearish fire, this domestic economic reality is occurring against a backdrop of slowing global growth. This economic equation means industrial companies with no pricing power are going to be squeezed where it hurts most: in their wallets. This is a decidedly bearish Fundamental Gravity, which means it’s time to put on a short trade and go huntin’ for wabbit."
May 2: Going Both Ways Globally in Mexico and Brazil
"No, I’m not talking about a Fifty Shades of Gray scenario. I’m talking about trading from both the long and short side of markets. A lot of people in this game, especially those residing in the U.S., are entirely focused on being long. They will only evaluate opportunities in which an asset class can increase in value. This myopic focus greatly inhibits their performance and risk management, and causes them to miss trades with much better risk profiles than simply being long. Sometimes, when I feel frisky, I go both ways at the same time. Right now, I’m feeling frisky about Latin ‘Merica and a trade with the potential for a much better risk-reward setup than anything I’m seeing in the States. Join me as we head south this week: pack your passports, my friends, and make sure you have a wad of pesos and reals in your wallet."
April 25: Going Back to the Bar with German Equities
"As is usually the case, investors are being led by storytelling and EWG’s price chart, rather than the three Gravities. The best market opportunities come when investors’ perception of a market diverges from that market’s Gravitational reality. That is exactly what is happening with EWG right now."
April 18: Energy’s Resurgence after a slow start to 2018
FXI: SLower China Growth, Rising Inflation Equals Crash in Equities
Trading Lesson: The Benjamins and How USD Finds Its Footing
Roll Over in Energy
Long the Consumer Discretionary Sector Via XLY
Long Financials on any weakness
"The bottom line is that slowing U.S. growth matters big time for anyone invested in the S&P, or U.S. equities in general...But unfortunately for the U.S. equity bears out there, we aren’t there yet. The balance of 2017 will remain conducive for U.S. equities, especially the growth oriented sectors of the U.S. economy."
Long Biotech Via IBB
Short the Recent Euro Strength
Long South African Equities Via EZA
VIX Will Remain Surpressed in the Short Term
"The bottom line is that we are almost certainly at a bottom for the VIX, but without a catalyst we will continue to cruise along this floor for the time being. Remember, markets don’t go straight up or straight down—they are cyclical. The VIX is down 60% since the election, and at some point it will go higher."
Avoid SNAP But Trade Tech Via XLK
Rollover in Silver
"From a short-trading opportunity perspective, it doesn’t get much more appealing than what I’m seeing in the silver market. Despite silver’s Fundamental Gravity shifting from bullish to bearish, silver is still being priced at level commensurate with a bullish Fundamental Gravity and not fundamental kryptonite. Not only that but despite a 15% gain in 3 months, investors are still leaning extremely long and complacently expecting low volatility for the foreseeable future."
"Fundamentals are shifting, quantitatively the silver market is trading at a level with a favorable reward-to-risk set up, and investors are leaning long and expecting the low volatility rally of Q1 to continue for the foreseeable future. From a short-trading opportunity perspective, it doesn’t get much more appealing."
Long GDP.AUD Currency Pair
Long the British Pound
"For investors who prefer exchange-traded funds, ETFs, you can get long the British pound via the Guggenheim CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Trust, FXB. You can initiate new long trade ideas at any price below $123.00."
Rollover in US Energy Stocks
Stay Long US Equities
"Despite the fact the S&P has jackknifed since the election, gaining 10% and closing at an all-time high last week, the behavioral gravity remains bullish. In a word, people aren’t yet bullish enough on the S&P 500 I’ve been LONG the S&P 500 since last September, and right now both the data and the framework are saying there is only one way to continue to trade the S&P: from the LONG side."
Go Long Financials and Tech, Avoid Utilities and REITS
Long Tech and Small Caps
Long Consumer Staples, Short Energy
"You can listen to the “this time is different” guys and blindly buy the S&P 500, or you can allow me to show you the benefits of being LONG the consumer staples sector via the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP), while being SHORT the energy sector via Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE)."
Rollover in Energy
Rollover in Crude
"Behaviorally, it doesn’t get more bearish for oil. Hedge funds and other institutional investors are all-in on the LONG side of crude oil. Historic positioning on one side of a market almost always unwinds in a violent and unpredictable manner. I’m not sure how many buyers remain, but there can’t be many. Sentiment is so aggressively bullish on oil that when I see the current fundamental and quantitative gravities, I start to salivate and look for good entry points to be SHORT black gold..."
Strong USD is Coming
"You’re probably thinking that your bond exposure will save you. Think again. US corporate bonds, US Treasuries, US high yield and emerging market debt are all negatively related to the Greenback right now. Yes, even your precious, and taxfree, US munis are moving in the opposite direction right now. And if you own commodities, 'I pity the fool!'"
Rollover in Chinese Equities
"FXI is up 16% since Brexit and is trading at nine-month highs. The equity markets are indicating that all is well, but one peek under the hood reveals something very different…make no mistake about it, China is falling into a liquidity trap. Investors, both individual and corporate, are hoarding cash because they don’t trust the economy and neither should you."
Reiteration of Long USD
"Right now, no one is talking about the US dollar and investors positioning is split right down the middle, with no one willing to lean one way or the other. This is the ideal bullish set up for me. I have the fundamental and quantitative gravities flashing bullish signs, and investors haven't figured it out yet."
Reiterate Long Gold
Upturn in USD
Reiterate Long Gold and US Treasuries
Long US Tech
"The point here is don’t fear bubbles and don’t avoid markets altogether because some people are calling them bubbles. Bubbles don’t pop in a day. The bigger the bubble, the longer it takes for the markets to work off the excess. … I went long QQQ because it broke out to new 2016 highs, held for 3 consecutive days and is now consolidating nicely just above $105.50."
Long US Defensive Sectors
Upturn in Gold and US Treasuries
"GLD, which represents gold, is up 5.4% and TLT, which represents long-dated Treasuries is up 5.6%. The beauty is that these moves are just getting started. I know this because the price action in both securities has only recently started to pick up and the speculative positioning in gold and Treasury futures is still extremely lopsided to the SHORT side."
Long the USD
"I’m going to look for two things to see whether or not I should stay long or maybe shift to a short buy in UUP and that’ll be how the US dollar trades around Fed-related events and how—or at all—how positioning starts to shift in the dollars futures markets because, again, right now it’s extremely long."
Long US Treasuries
"So far, the USD is up year to date. Once the market begins to realize whats unfolding, I expect the USD to show significant weakness. Keep in mind, that the price action of the USD is not just dependent on Fed policy but it’s also being impacted heavily by the fact that the rest of the world is still in an easing stance. So, don’t expect a full on collapse of the USD to be the signal that things are beginning to shift. That said, a close below $97 and a decline to the $93 area would be a pretty good indication."
The Fed Will Not Raise Rates 4 Times This Year
"The Fed made a mistake raising rates in December, they just haven’t admitted it yet. Given the US growth trajectory and the global backdrop, there is no chance the Fed will raise rates 4 times this year."
Long Gold Miners
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