*All performance based on Morningstar data for the specific category. Performance of durations longer than 1-year are annualized.
Let me start by saying, there is no investment strategy that can be profitable 80% of the time or can string together a ridiculous number of consecutive winning trades. The only guy I know that had a strategy like that was Bernie Madoff. Seriously though, if such a strategy existed, it would literally defy the Law of Averages and make the entire Field of Statistics as legitimate as trying to find Big Foot.
The trade ideas generated in Focus Market Trader are based on my Gravitational Framework, the exact same framework I use to trade over 200 markets worldwide, every day, in real time with real money. This means, on average, between 40% and 50% of my trade ideas are profitable.
This may sound unimpressive but think about it. Babe Ruth batted (.324), Willie Mays (.302), even Barry Bonds with his ginormous head batted just (.298). The best baseball players of all-time only hit the ball 30% of the time. Similarly, the best 3-pointer shooters in NBA history only made 40% of their shots. Reggie Miller and Ray Allen hit 40.0% of their three point attempts and Steph Curry is now hitting 44.3%.
These same statistics hold true for the best money managers, who are typically profitable on 30% to 50% of their trades. Right now, the trade ideas in Focus Market Trader are “nothing but net” 43% of the time.
But you may ask, how can I make money if I’m only profitable on 4 out of every 10 trades?
The key to consistent profitability over long time periods is to make a lot more on your winners than you lose on your losers. Since inception, profitable trade ideas in Focus Market Trader have made $2.3, while the losing trade ideas have lost $1. Cutting losses quickly and letting winners run is why TWR has a stellar 3+ year track record with less than 1 trade each week.
Accountability and transparency are at the core of everything I do, both in my asset management firm and as Editor of Focus Market Trader. Accountability and transparency is why this track record page is updated weekly and publicly available with every single closed trade idea since December 2012.
If you want access to my Gravitational Investing Framework and all of my weekly trade ideas, then sign up now!
2018 CLOSED TRADE IDEAS
2017 closed trade ideas
2016 closed trade ideas
2015 closed trade ideas
2014 closed trade ideas
2013 closed trade ideas
2012 closed trade ideas
Performance Disclaimer: Hypothetical or simulated performance results (“Trade Ideas”) have certain inherent limitations unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading and may not be impacted by brokerage and other slippage fees. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed with capital, the results may have under– or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as lack of liquidity. The performance figures quoted on the website and in the report are based on the assumption that trades are being executed in taxable brokerage accounts, with margin capabilities and risking 1% of capital per trade idea. For example, we had a SHORT trade idea for FXE in October 2015. The entry price for the trade idea was $112.58 and the risk price of $113.00. For the sake of performance tracking we assume a risk of $1,000 per $100,000 of account value. This would equate to a trader shorting 2,380 shares of FXE per $100,000 of capital. We get this share amount by dividing the $1,000 of risk capital by the $0.42 per share of risk in the trade ($113.00 risk price-$112.58 entry price). This trade idea was closed on February 4, 2016 at $109.47, for a per share profit of $3.11, or $7,401.80 per $100,000 of capital. This dollar based return equates to a 7.41% percentage return for the overall portfolio even though the cumulative return of FXE over that trade was just 2.69%. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In addition, please note that we use the closing price of the most recent Friday for all OPEN trade ideas so that subscribers can evaluate the current performance of those trades. It is EXTREMELY IMPORTANT that you review all of the Terms of Service associated with Focus Market Trader, specifically Section 2, Performance Claims in the Disclaimer.